2022 NBA Finals TODAY: Warriors vs. Celtics prediction, odds, line, Game 6 picks from proven model on 88-60 run
SportsLine’s projection model simulated Game 6 of Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals 2022 10,000 times
After losing back-to-back games for the first time this postseason, the Boston Celtics are on the brink of elimination approaching Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals. They trail the series 3-2 to the Golden State Warriors, who will be looking to close things out on Thursday and win their fourth championship in eight seasons. Steph Curry had a 43-point masterpiece in the Game 4 win in Boston, and he received plenty of help from the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green in a team effort to take Game 5 in San Francisco.
Game 6 will tip off at 9 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook has Boston as the as 3.5-point favorites in the latest Warriors vs. Celtics odds, with the over-under set at 210.5 points. Before finalizing any Celtics vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA Finals 2022 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the 2022 NBA Finals on a stunning 88-60 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in its Warriors vs. Celtics picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Celtics vs. Warriors:
Why the Celtics can cover
Forward Jayson Tatum is an all-around talent for the Celtics. Tatum can get a bucket at all three levels with no problem and has court vision to find the open man. The Duke product has a smooth-looking jumper from the mid-range and 3-point land. Tatum also has long arms and plays sound defense. The three-time All-Star is averaging 23.2 points, 7.6 rebounds and seven assists per game. In Game 5, Tatum racked up 27 points, 10 rebounds and four assists.
Williams provides Boston with a physical presence down low. He is a defensive beast who plays with outstanding effort. He can switch and defend multiple positions. The Texas A&M is a glass cleaner and an excellent rebounder. He has pulled down eight-plus boards in three straight games while averaging 2.4 blocks per game.
Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors’ offense, led by Splash Brothers Curry and Klay Thompson, gets most of the attention, but it’s been Golden State’s efforts on the defensive end that have it leading 3-2. Wiggins has done a superb job defending Tatum, who is shooting just 37.3 percent from the field in the 2022 NBA Finals, and he doesn’t have a single Finals game above 50 percent FG shooting. The Warriors are also forcing turnovers at a higher rate between the two teams, and only one Boston starter had more assists than turnovers in Game 5.
As for the Golden State offense, it’s getting contributions from all over the roster. The Warriors bench scored 31 points in Game 5, compared to the just 10 points Boston got from its reserves. Overall in the series, Golden State has figured out the elite Celtics defense that led the NBA during the regular season by holding opponents to 50 percent in effective FG percentage. The Warriors have a 54 percent effective FG percentage, with room for improvement if Thompson carries over his hot hand in Game 5 to Game 6.
How to make Celtics vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get that NBA Finals pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
I typically try to defend my picks with as much objective information as I possibly can. I’ll provide some in the over/under and in the prop picks. But if you’re asking me why I, the writer of this column, have bet my own personal funds on the Golden State Warriors winning the NBA championship on Thursday, it’s really this simple: They can taste it. It was apparent when they separated themselves in the fourth quarter, when Draymond Green was scoring points in the first, when Jordan Poole made his second bonkers buzzer-beater of the series, when Andrew Wiggins started making every contested jumper he took. My entirely subjective memory is struggling to recall many instances of a team seemingly separating itself this deep into the Finals and not walking away with the title. The Warriors know this feeling well. They’ve been on both sides of it in the Finals. Six years ago, they were in this exact situation. They had a chance to close out the Finals on the road against Cleveland. They failed, and lost Game 7 at home. There are strategic and statistical reasons for me to lean Golden State, but at this stage of the Finals, you ultimately have to trust your gut a little bit. Mine is telling me that the Warriors are about to become the NBA champions. The pick: Warriors +3.5
OK … NOW we can get a little bit more objective. Let’s take a look at the Boston Celtics’ offense, by the numbers:
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to average 7.3 field goals per game in the restricted area in the regular season. That figure has been cut nearly in half in the Finals, down to 3.8 per game.
The Celtics are scoring only 98.5 points per 100 possessions — and 82.1 points per 100 plays in the half court — over their past two losses. These are bad numbers, but typically, when you see numbers like this, you assume bad shooting is the culprit. Nope. The Celtics made more than 37 percent of their 3-pointers in those games.
The Celtics have allowed 103 points off of turnovers thus far in the series. That’s the most any team has given up through five games in the Finals, and the Warriors need just 12 to set the overall Finals record in Game 6.
So, we have a team that’s struggling to score even with its 3s falling. The Celtics are completely unable to score at the rim with Robert Williams III struggling with a knee injury. They’re turning the ball over left and right. Golden State was extremely reliant on Stephen Curry to generate its offense in Games 1-4. Wiggins stepped up in Game 5. Someone else will in Game 6. But Game 5 showed just how volatile Curry’s individual offense can be. Sometimes, he’s just going to miss nine 3-pointers. This has been a defensive series for five games. Expect it to stay that way in Game 6. The pick: Under 210
Is Game 6 Klay Thompson a myth? Not in the slightest. If you ignore a 2019 blowout over the Clippers, Thompson has scored 25 points or more in every Game 6 he’s played since 2016. He’s averaging 32.2 points in those games (excluding the Clippers game), and the only ones Golden State has lost have been on the road against LeBron James and the one in which Thompson literally tore his ACL. Yeah, I’m not betting against Game 6. That he seems to have found his stroke over the past three games is the cherry on top. The pick: Thompson over 20.5 points
Andrew Wiggins deserves all of the credit in the world for his 29 rebounds over the past two games, but there’s a strategic explanation for it as well. The Celtics are making such a point of drawing Kevon Looney and Draymond Green onto the perimeter in a desperate bid to generate looks at the rim that neither of them are in a position to rebound as well as they typically would. Wiggins has been the statistical beneficiary, and he will be in Game 6 as well. The pick: Wiggins over 7.5 rebounds
I played this prop in Game 5 and I’ll play it again in Game 6. Through five games, Jayson Tatum has made the same number of 3-pointers (19) as he has 2-pointers (19) in this series. He can’t get to the basket, which means his only chance of meeting his scoring quota is jacking up 3s. He made five of his 10 looks in Game 5. I’m expecting him to make at least four in Game 6, but on an even higher number of attempts. The pick: Tatum over 3.5 3